Hydrogen is without doubt one of the pillars of the power transition. Nonetheless, there’s nonetheless uncertainty about its particular functions and the scope of hydrogen use. A brand new research by Fraunhofer ISI addresses this subject and appears on the price-elastic demand for hydrogen in sectors similar to business, transport and power conversion.
This research was performed as a part of the “HyPat—World Atlas of H2 Potential” undertaking. Specialised simulation fashions are used to depict alternative routes of attaining the local weather objectives.
Hydrogen and its derivatives have an vital position to play in assembly local weather objectives, particularly in attaining greenhouse gasoline neutrality—that is additionally highlighted within the German and European hydrogen methods. Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless unclear how extensively hydrogen ought to be in used by which functions. A key criterion right here is the worth of hydrogen and its potential to compete with different choices similar to direct electrification, for instance.
How will the demand for hydrogen develop in particular sectors beneath the purpose of attaining greenhouse gasoline neutrality in 2045? The brand new research by Fraunhofer ISI and Power Techniques Evaluation Associates—ESA² “Worth-Elastic Demand for Hydrogen in Germany—Methodology and Outcomes” tries to reply this query. Functions in business, transport and power conversion are analyzed utilizing techno-economic, agent-based simulation fashions.
This method permits statements to be made with respect to the worth elasticities of hydrogen demand. Constructing warmth and worldwide air and maritime transport are additionally taken under consideration, however utilizing the findings from different research quite than our personal modeling. The simulation fashions map the choice choices for attaining the local weather objectives and assess these from an financial viewpoint—for instance, whether or not electrical or gas cell automobiles are economically extra viable relying on the underlying costs.
Essential drivers of hydrogen demand
One of many key outcomes of the research in response to Prof. Martin Wietschel, who led the undertaking at Fraunhofer ISI, is “that so-called no-regret functions are an important driver of hydrogen demand—these are functions for which there are hardly any economically-attractive various expertise choices for attaining Germany’s bold greenhouse gasoline discount targets.” This lack of options signifies that costs are largely inelastic and prone to stay comparatively excessive sooner or later.
Wietschel continues, “That is very true for the power and materials use of hydrogen in sure functions in business similar to within the metal or fundamental chemical compounds sectors. The calculations within the research present that demand right here will quantity to approx. 250 TWh in 2045, which is roughly 10 % of as we speak’s last power demand in Germany.”
Nonetheless, to attain this, huge electrolysis capacities of round 20 GW must be inbuilt Germany alone, in different phrases, about 40 instances the present globally put in electrolysis capability—which isn’t solely capital-intensive and time-consuming, but in addition requires fast improvement.
Within the transport sector and in worldwide air and maritime transport, particularly, there’s additionally prone to be a excessive, price-inelastic demand for artificial fuels to cut back greenhouse gases (209 TWh in 2045), which might be met primarily by hydrogen and biogenic sources. This means that hydrogen shouldn’t be seemingly for use in automobiles, vehicles, buses or rail as a result of there’s the choice of direct electrification right here.
A extra cost-favorable use of hydrogen is just doable at wholesale costs under 90 Euro/MWh in 2045, and even a lot decrease, relying on the applying. At a value of fifty Euro/MWh, the analyses yield a complete demand for hydrogen of 476 TWh in 2045. Nonetheless, this isn’t very seemingly because of numerous prices for manufacturing, transport or distribution.
Market costs considerably above 90 Euro/MWh in 2045 appear far more practical. For this reason it doesn’t appear smart to offer large-scale help for hydrogen use in sectors similar to constructing warmth, land-based transport or power use in business.
Costs will co-determine how a lot hydrogen might be utilized in future
Within the power conversion sector, nonetheless, demand for hydrogen might be comparatively price-elastic—in a wholesale value vary from 130 to 90 Euro/MWh. That is associated to the truth that choices to steadiness provide and demand are mandatory for the focused growth of renewable energies.
Right here, functions to make use of hydrogen storage and reconversion into electrical energy compete, amongst others, with functions to extend the pliability of demand within the system, similar to warmth pumps, warmth networks or electrical automobiles. As well as, there’s the choice to make use of different storage choices or to deploy much more
The outcomes for 2030 present that hydrogen demand at the moment won’t be very excessive at simply over 40 TWh. Sure industrial functions might dominate the demand for hydrogen. Assist ought to concentrate on these within the coming years. In any case, low wholesale costs are to not be anticipated and are subsequently not prone to contribute to elevating the demand for hydrogen.
